When numbers matter – an analysis of current and future availability of nursing workforce in South Africa

Abstract

Introduction: Nurses are in short supply globally and South Africa is no exception. The situation has worsened recently with the introduction of new nursing education programmes without putting contingency plans in place to mitigate against the risks.
Purpose/Aim: The purpose of this paper is to alert the profession to the impact the changes in nursing education has had on the availability of nurses of all categories, in the short and longer term, and to make recommendations for addressing the problem before the crisis leads to the longer-term collapse of the health care system.
Methodology: The annual and time series statistics published by the South African Nursing Council were used to collect data up until the year 2022 which were the most recent statistics available on the website. Projections were based on the known data related to the age of nurses on the register, the number of accredited places at nursing education institutions, population data from Stats SA and the World Bank and other available information. These projections were based on certain assumptions detailed in the article.
Results/Findings: South Africa already has insufficient nurses to meet the requirements for providing universal health coverage of 58,64 nurses per 10 000. Unless urgent steps are taken to increase nurse training, the country will be short of 260 458 nurses by the year 2030 and just over 400 000 nurses by the year 2054.
Conclusion: Calculating training needs is complex and this article shows only the tip of the iceberg, but it is clear that it is imperative that all stakeholders who influence nursing education in South Africa come together to avert this crisis.